***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.8 15.4 0.1 55.2 53.2 13.1 13.6 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 15.4 0.0 56.3 53.1 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.2 15.1 -0.1 52.8 50.5 14.5 15.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.9 13.1 -0.2 47.5 47.6 9.4 10.0 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.0 13.1 -0.1 51.1 48.4 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 11.0 -0.3 43.9 44.0 10.5 11.1 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 0.1 59.2 54.8 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.5 10.8 -0.3 44.8 43.4 4.9 5.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.1 13.4 -0.2 51.2 47.5 12.7 13.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 11.6 -0.2 49.0 45.4 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 12.5 -0.2 47.9 46.3 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.7 11.7 -0.4 41.1 42.2 10.5 10.9 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.2 11.5 -0.4 39.6 41.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.5 13.3 -0.3 47.5 45.9 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.1 13.8 -0.3 45.7 45.8 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 12.3 -0.2 45.2 45.4 12.6 13.0 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.0 15.3 0.1 58.7 55.5 13.3 13.7 14.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.2 10.8 -0.3 44.5 43.7 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.5 15.3 0.0 55.4 51.9 13.0 13.4 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.1 8.8 -0.5 40.2 39.8 7.0 7.4 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.1 14.5 -0.1 50.3 48.4 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.1 15.1 0.0 54.3 52.2 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.1 14.9 -0.1 53.5 50.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 13.0 -0.2 47.8 46.8 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.1 13.9 0.0 55.0 52.2 12.7 13.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.6 11.4 -0.5 39.0 38.5 11.5 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.5 14.7 0.1 57.2 54.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.8 13.4 -0.3 43.7 44.9 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.5 10.1 -0.4 41.2 41.6 9.4 10.0 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.9 15.5 0.0 55.3 52.6 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------