***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.06.2014.-22.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 13.5 14.4 16.2 -0.2 49.3 48.4 14.0 14.4 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 12.9 14.3 16.3 -0.3 46.2 46.4 12.8 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.1 16.0 16.0 -0.4 44.2 45.6 14.9 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.3 14.1 -0.5 35.6 44.0 9.9 11.3 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 11.4 12.4 14.0 -0.4 38.7 45.4 12.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.6 12.3 -0.3 46.0 45.9 11.2 11.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 13.3 14.4 16.4 -0.2 49.4 47.8 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 6.4 12.2 -0.3 46.0 45.9 5.1 6.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.8 14.3 -0.3 42.8 46.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 12.9 14.0 12.8 -0.3 44.4 46.3 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.8 13.6 -0.3 44.0 45.9 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.3 13.1 -0.4 46.3 44.1 11.0 11.7 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.0 13.3 12.7 -0.4 45.4 43.4 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.5 14.3 -0.5 45.1 43.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.5 -0.6 34.1 42.3 13.9 15.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 13.0 13.7 13.4 -0.4 43.7 44.4 13.3 14.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 13.5 14.6 16.2 -0.2 50.0 47.5 13.6 14.6 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.3 12.1 -0.3 45.1 45.6 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 13.1 14.1 16.2 -0.4 46.2 45.2 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.9 8.2 10.4 -0.3 46.3 45.3 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 12.8 13.6 15.3 -0.4 42.1 45.9 13.2 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.4 16.0 -0.4 46.6 45.4 12.9 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 12.6 13.5 15.8 -0.5 46.6 43.8 12.5 13.8 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.0 14.1 -0.4 46.0 45.0 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.9 14.7 -0.2 42.4 48.0 12.6 13.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.2 12.7 -0.6 39.8 40.6 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.8 15.5 -0.1 47.8 49.2 12.4 12.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.2 14.4 -0.6 35.5 42.3 12.1 12.9 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.7 10.7 11.5 -0.3 46.1 45.7 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.3 14.5 16.4 -0.3 45.8 46.5 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------