***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.06.2014.-15.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.5 15.7 -0.3 45.8 46.6 14.2 14.7 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.7 15.7 -0.3 45.1 47.1 13.2 13.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.2 15.4 -0.4 43.8 45.3 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.7 13.6 -0.5 39.5 44.5 10.3 11.0 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 12.0 12.4 13.4 -0.5 37.1 44.2 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.4 11.5 -0.6 39.5 42.9 11.3 11.6 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.4 15.8 -0.2 47.1 48.3 13.5 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.3 11.3 -0.6 39.4 41.6 5.8 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.2 13.4 13.6 -0.5 37.1 42.9 13.2 14.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.4 12.0 -0.5 39.1 42.7 12.9 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.1 12.8 -0.5 37.7 43.5 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.0 12.2 -0.7 36.0 40.6 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.5 11.8 -0.7 34.0 39.8 12.5 13.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.2 13.6 -0.5 41.3 44.0 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.4 14.1 -0.5 38.1 43.4 14.2 14.8 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.2 12.6 -0.6 36.2 42.6 13.0 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.6 15.6 -0.2 49.7 48.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.3 11.2 -0.5 39.2 42.7 11.9 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.1 15.6 -0.3 44.9 46.3 13.5 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.9 9.4 -0.7 38.6 40.8 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.7 14.7 -0.4 40.1 44.2 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.9 15.3 -0.3 47.3 46.8 12.9 14.1 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.6 15.1 -0.4 44.6 45.1 13.1 13.7 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.8 13.3 -0.5 41.2 43.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.6 14.1 -0.3 42.2 46.2 13.4 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 11.9 11.6 11.9 -0.8 28.9 38.3 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.5 14.9 -0.2 45.9 47.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.6 13.8 -0.5 38.7 43.2 12.4 12.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.6 -0.6 39.7 42.4 9.7 10.9 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.4 15.8 -0.3 45.0 46.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------