***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 13.9 14.0 14.9 0.9 67.7 65.9 11.4 13.2 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.2 14.9 1.0 70.9 68.7 11.4 12.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 14.9 15.3 14.7 0.8 64.5 64.4 13.1 14.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 10.3 10.4 12.6 0.9 67.2 66.1 7.6 9.3 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 11.4 12.0 12.8 0.9 65.8 65.8 10.4 11.3 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 10.1 10.1 10.3 0.5 57.0 57.0 9.6 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.1 15.0 1.0 69.2 68.6 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 4.6 4.9 9.9 0.3 53.4 53.7 3.6 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 12.1 12.5 13.2 0.7 59.6 61.3 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.2 11.0 0.5 54.8 56.8 11.0 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 11.9 12.2 12.0 0.6 60.3 59.9 10.7 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 9.8 9.9 10.7 0.4 55.4 55.0 8.9 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 11.2 11.4 11.0 0.5 60.5 58.6 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.1 12.8 0.6 62.2 60.7 11.8 12.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 13.1 13.3 13.9 0.8 63.0 63.3 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 12.2 12.8 11.9 0.8 65.6 64.2 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 14.5 14.0 14.8 1.2 73.1 71.0 11.9 12.8 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 10.4 10.3 9.9 0.3 52.4 54.0 9.6 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.8 14.8 1.0 69.7 67.8 11.6 12.7 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 6.4 5.9 7.4 -0.1 45.9 46.0 5.4 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 12.1 12.6 14.3 0.7 60.4 61.3 11.6 12.0 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.5 14.6 1.0 71.1 68.9 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 13.1 12.9 14.5 0.9 66.0 65.9 11.6 12.6 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 12.2 12.4 12.5 0.6 60.3 60.2 10.9 12.0 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.8 13.8 0.9 70.2 66.7 11.1 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 11.0 11.3 10.6 0.6 60.9 60.7 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.9 14.4 1.0 70.1 67.6 11.4 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 11.0 11.8 13.0 0.7 63.6 63.0 10.2 10.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 9.2 8.6 9.1 0.1 48.4 49.8 7.6 9.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 14.0 14.0 15.0 0.9 68.2 67.2 11.6 13.3 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------