***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 52.1 70.9 54.4 81.0 43.9 40.8 59.3 74.9 84.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 80.4 66.4 46.6 78.1 43.5 41.5 54.3 71.0 84.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 63.2 87.4 55.3 82.8 45.4 41.6 69.0 91.1 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 89.6 80.1 65.0 90.4 49.7 46.4 69.5 80.3 91.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 71.7 65.5 63.8 92.3 49.3 46.7 57.4 66.6 74.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 81.0 81.5 83.1 99.9 52.5 51.6 59.3 79.7 83.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 65.4 59.2 47.8 79.5 45.4 41.6 51.7 60.1 70.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 104.6 102.8 80.0 100.7 54.9 52.2 85.8 98.2 108.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 74.8 68.1 66.8 92.3 49.9 46.6 53.1 68.3 80.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 86.5 83.0 81.9 98.4 53.4 50.5 64.7 79.8 98.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 65.8 64.0 65.9 99.1 54.8 51.1 56.5 59.9 74.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 63.1 64.0 63.8 96.5 52.7 49.8 44.3 58.7 68.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 64.7 60.6 70.5 97.6 53.3 51.3 51.3 58.0 80.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 77.1 87.7 74.5 86.0 45.0 44.2 79.6 91.0 101.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 62.8 56.8 54.8 86.1 49.9 45.7 50.6 57.0 71.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 59.1 55.7 67.3 98.0 54.0 50.9 35.8 49.8 81.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 71.3 62.4 45.7 80.1 47.4 43.2 50.2 63.0 82.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 87.8 82.7 86.5 94.7 49.8 47.3 73.7 82.8 92.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 81.4 68.6 48.0 78.1 42.8 41.2 63.4 73.5 91.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 81.0 82.0 91.0 104.6 56.6 54.3 61.7 76.5 85.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 72.5 66.9 60.7 88.0 47.7 44.6 51.9 68.4 77.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 73.1 68.1 47.3 80.3 45.2 43.1 57.4 68.8 77.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 52.1 60.3 51.4 79.4 43.5 41.6 53.5 65.1 77.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 93.0 76.7 72.6 88.8 45.1 44.3 71.5 81.3 113.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 75.3 67.7 63.2 85.1 46.2 43.8 49.6 68.4 75.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 47.6 62.1 56.6 88.0 45.4 44.3 46.4 65.4 75.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 50.4 64.2 58.8 80.5 43.7 40.9 56.3 71.4 90.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 62.7 59.1 66.2 94.7 53.3 49.2 49.8 56.7 71.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 108.4 103.6 87.8 95.2 50.6 47.5 91.2 103.3 108.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 79.3 69.5 48.7 78.9 44.0 41.3 63.7 71.5 87.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------