***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.5 15.2 86.9 57.1 44.9 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.9 15.8 13.3 87.3 57.2 46.8 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.4 19.5 14.6 85.9 57.4 44.6 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.3 12.9 15.6 92.4 60.7 45.5 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 6.0 17.9 12.6 78.4 54.2 41.8 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.6 19.5 18.2 97.1 63.6 48.5 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.0 12.5 13.7 88.2 56.4 48.0 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.1 18.7 16.5 86.8 53.6 45.6 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 7.0 15.2 12.8 72.9 49.1 41.6 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.1 17.6 15.6 74.8 48.3 42.3 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 6.0 17.1 11.4 76.8 52.0 42.2 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.8 13.1 88.0 57.1 46.3 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.9 24.5 15.1 94.2 64.8 47.5 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 11.6 23.0 19.0 88.6 57.1 46.7 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 11.5 13.2 91.4 65.6 47.2 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.0 16.1 13.8 90.0 62.2 45.3 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.4 14.0 93.5 60.7 49.4 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 16.3 18.7 81.3 50.9 44.9 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.1 13.5 86.6 58.0 46.0 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.4 20.3 21.7 105.9 61.1 53.2 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.7 10.8 13.6 81.7 53.9 43.5 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.3 14.7 92.6 60.9 50.2 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.4 15.0 14.0 87.9 59.4 45.4 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 11.7 21.8 16.5 82.0 53.8 44.2 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.1 12.3 15.8 87.0 58.9 46.0 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.1 20.0 14.5 110.2 68.4 53.0 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.0 15.7 85.0 57.8 45.6 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 5.3 18.2 15.0 93.5 63.4 46.4 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.3 27.9 20.1 88.4 53.3 47.0 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.5 22.2 13.8 86.2 56.3 46.1 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------