***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 20.5 16.9 14.0 93.6 57.0 46.4 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.3 26.4 11.8 91.9 58.2 46.9 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.1 24.3 14.0 93.9 57.6 46.1 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 8.1 23.1 15.6 91.7 57.9 45.0 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.6 15.8 14.5 89.8 57.0 42.3 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 9.1 20.9 19.0 92.0 58.3 45.7 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.4 13.1 11.7 91.2 57.3 46.5 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.2 27.7 16.7 91.5 56.2 45.0 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.8 14.3 14.8 87.8 54.2 41.8 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.1 16.7 16.8 87.0 53.7 42.4 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.4 20.2 13.7 93.8 59.1 45.1 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.1 14.6 94.1 58.5 47.0 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.4 16.4 15.6 87.1 54.9 46.7 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.0 18.2 17.9 93.1 57.0 47.3 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 16.3 14.2 95.2 61.1 47.6 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.3 14.9 88.7 57.6 45.3 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 7.8 20.7 10.8 90.0 59.6 47.2 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 19.6 20.3 91.7 55.8 45.7 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 21.6 12.3 92.6 58.1 46.8 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.5 20.6 97.1 58.6 48.0 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.4 17.8 14.1 89.7 57.0 43.1 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.2 20.1 12.0 95.4 61.9 49.0 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.8 13.1 93.6 58.6 47.2 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.9 21.9 17.7 93.0 57.5 46.2 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.9 14.7 15.4 91.4 56.7 45.9 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.3 13.3 86.7 56.7 47.0 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.9 20.7 15.1 92.7 57.6 46.7 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.2 17.6 16.1 95.8 60.3 47.1 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.6 20.7 93.1 56.3 46.7 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 12.2 24.2 12.6 94.7 57.7 47.1 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------