***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 20.3 15.8 11.0 61.1 49.3 43.1 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.1 16.4 11.0 66.7 52.7 43.7 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.2 18.8 12.6 67.2 51.3 45.0 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 23.5 18.8 15.4 76.2 53.2 46.3 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.1 13.8 13.5 67.2 48.6 41.2 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.2 12.9 17.9 74.5 46.2 40.5 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.6 13.5 11.4 68.8 55.4 46.2 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 17.3 26.4 14.9 71.4 46.4 40.4 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 11.7 20.6 14.9 70.4 49.8 42.9 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.0 12.0 14.7 67.7 46.5 39.6 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.0 14.7 15.2 78.0 50.3 44.6 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.3 9.4 14.0 75.0 48.8 42.8 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 8.6 13.3 64.6 44.6 38.2 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 16.6 24.0 15.4 63.8 47.8 40.3 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.2 13.8 74.0 55.9 44.2 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.9 10.1 14.8 73.6 48.1 42.4 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.1 18.9 12.0 76.8 56.4 47.6 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 15.5 19.9 16.3 68.4 45.8 39.1 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.9 20.0 11.3 66.2 52.1 42.9 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.4 12.2 15.3 67.4 41.7 37.4 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.8 15.3 13.3 64.6 48.3 41.2 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.0 21.6 12.8 79.6 59.0 48.6 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.6 12.2 67.7 52.2 43.0 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.6 22.9 15.8 68.8 48.7 41.5 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 21.0 17.5 14.2 66.9 49.0 43.0 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.9 9.9 14.8 73.6 48.0 43.6 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 23.8 18.3 12.5 61.6 48.2 42.1 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.0 15.1 79.8 55.8 46.5 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 16.0 22.6 16.6 66.8 42.6 37.4 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.7 18.1 10.8 63.9 52.4 43.6 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------