***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9.3 9.2 14.2 85.2 55.3 51.1 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 7.0 10.5 69.6 49.2 46.0 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.4 10.3 14.1 87.5 54.7 51.5 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 14.7 21.7 18.5 103.1 63.0 56.9 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 13.1 14.4 23.2 137.9 73.0 65.2 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 22.9 19.7 28.0 140.2 71.3 68.6 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.9 4.8 11.0 72.3 50.1 45.4 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 37.7 41.1 31.9 145.6 74.2 67.5 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 13.7 18.7 24.3 144.9 72.9 67.0 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 25.5 31.1 34.8 161.4 78.8 71.9 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 16.1 18.7 25.5 144.7 75.9 67.3 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 19.3 20.9 22.0 128.0 71.2 63.9 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 21.7 21.6 26.5 150.4 75.3 70.0 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.3 16.7 22.3 102.0 59.0 53.8 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 9.9 13.5 13.6 87.0 60.6 55.3 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 19.4 20.9 23.7 145.2 72.9 68.1 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 6.1 8.9 61.5 46.4 42.7 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 19.8 19.4 31.1 138.8 72.9 66.4 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 6.8 10.9 70.4 48.9 45.9 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 23.9 33.5 147.3 76.7 70.1 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.9 12.9 19.7 123.1 67.3 61.3 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.7 7.8 7.9 54.1 43.0 39.6 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.6 6.4 12.0 72.1 47.3 44.5 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 13.5 15.8 22.6 116.3 65.6 59.5 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 8.9 11.6 17.8 98.7 59.3 54.9 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 13.0 16.6 14.0 88.6 55.0 51.7 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 8.2 8.2 15.5 86.3 54.4 50.7 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 14.1 18.5 20.0 109.7 65.7 60.4 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 28.0 30.5 30.4 134.8 71.2 64.8 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.4 11.5 74.3 52.4 47.2 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------