***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.4 25.3 -0.2 50.8 49.3 24.2 25.3 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.0 25.2 -0.5 44.3 44.2 24.5 25.1 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.8 25.4 -0.3 48.3 46.8 24.5 25.0 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.5 21.9 -0.9 35.4 36.7 17.5 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.0 24.9 22.7 -0.9 35.0 36.8 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 23.1 23.3 20.1 -0.8 34.2 36.4 23.2 23.9 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 25.2 24.8 25.3 -0.3 46.4 47.3 24.0 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.7 12.8 20.6 -0.9 34.4 36.9 12.8 13.4 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 24.1 24.4 23.3 -0.7 39.8 40.8 24.2 24.7 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.2 24.3 21.6 -0.7 39.9 40.7 24.1 24.8 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.4 24.6 22.6 -1.1 32.4 34.9 24.7 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.5 23.8 21.9 -1.0 34.6 35.9 23.7 24.3 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.5 24.6 21.6 -1.1 32.5 34.3 24.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.5 23.3 -0.4 45.4 45.9 24.0 25.1 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.6 -1.1 29.9 33.0 25.5 25.7 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 25.1 25.3 22.0 -1.1 31.6 33.6 25.3 25.7 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.3 24.9 -0.6 43.2 43.3 23.6 24.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.9 21.0 -0.5 42.3 43.9 23.5 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 25.1 24.5 25.3 -0.5 45.6 44.5 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 18.7 19.0 18.2 -0.8 33.2 37.4 19.0 19.5 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.4 24.3 -0.6 42.4 41.8 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.1 25.0 -0.4 48.9 46.5 24.1 25.1 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.5 24.9 25.2 -0.4 47.3 46.1 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.2 23.2 -0.4 46.1 46.2 23.7 24.6 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.6 24.6 23.3 -0.6 41.2 41.8 24.4 25.1 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.4 21.5 -0.7 39.0 39.9 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.6 24.5 -0.2 48.0 48.0 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 25.4 25.2 22.4 -1.1 31.4 33.6 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 18.6 18.9 20.0 -0.6 38.7 41.3 18.7 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.5 25.2 25.4 -0.3 47.7 47.1 24.2 25.3 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------