***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.6 27.6 0.8 62.3 58.1 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.7 27.5 0.5 59.0 54.5 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 26.9 26.9 27.8 0.7 61.8 57.0 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 20.1 19.8 24.7 0.1 52.8 52.0 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.1 26.8 25.1 0.1 53.1 51.6 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.5 22.7 0.3 55.7 53.1 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.9 27.5 0.7 60.5 56.1 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.9 23.4 0.2 54.9 52.1 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 26.5 26.6 25.4 0.3 56.1 53.6 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.2 24.1 0.4 57.3 54.0 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.3 24.9 0.0 52.6 51.0 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.4 24.8 0.1 54.3 51.5 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.2 23.8 0.1 54.9 51.6 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.5 25.2 0.5 61.4 55.0 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.6 25.8 0.1 53.4 51.4 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.0 24.4 0.0 54.7 51.3 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.2 27.2 0.4 58.5 53.7 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.7 23.6 0.6 61.0 56.0 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.2 27.6 0.5 60.0 54.5 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.2 20.8 0.3 58.4 53.2 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.9 26.7 26.5 0.4 57.1 54.5 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.7 27.1 0.5 61.0 54.8 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 26.6 26.8 27.5 0.5 61.0 55.2 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 26.0 26.3 25.4 0.7 62.7 56.7 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 27.1 27.0 25.4 0.5 58.8 55.2 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.1 24.5 0.4 57.1 53.9 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 26.4 26.4 26.6 0.8 62.9 57.9 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 27.7 27.5 25.0 0.0 53.3 51.3 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.1 21.2 22.4 0.4 58.5 54.2 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.6 27.6 0.7 61.3 56.3 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------