***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 26.8 27.6 27.1 0.9 66.0 58.7 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.2 26.5 26.9 0.6 63.4 55.2 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 24.2 27.0 27.2 0.8 66.0 57.3 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.7 20.2 24.0 0.3 57.7 53.7 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.5 27.0 24.5 0.3 58.0 53.6 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 25.6 25.9 22.1 0.7 61.8 56.6 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.2 27.0 0.7 65.3 56.9 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.6 14.7 22.8 0.5 58.9 54.8 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.7 26.6 24.9 0.5 60.7 55.1 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 23.8 26.5 23.6 0.7 62.0 56.1 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.4 27.1 24.2 0.2 55.2 52.7 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.0 24.1 0.4 56.2 53.7 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.1 27.4 23.2 0.4 56.5 53.9 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 24.2 26.4 24.8 0.7 64.5 56.1 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.7 25.1 0.2 57.1 52.1 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.6 28.1 23.7 0.3 55.9 53.1 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.4 25.9 26.7 0.5 61.6 54.2 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.5 23.2 1.0 66.7 58.4 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.0 27.0 0.6 64.0 55.2 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.1 22.1 20.4 0.8 63.4 57.1 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.1 27.0 25.9 0.6 61.7 55.5 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.0 26.0 26.6 0.6 62.2 55.1 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.0 27.1 27.0 0.7 66.1 55.8 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.4 25.0 0.9 67.2 57.8 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.9 24.8 0.6 61.7 56.3 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.9 24.0 0.9 63.3 57.9 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.5 27.0 26.1 0.9 65.8 58.9 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.9 24.3 0.2 57.1 52.8 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.8 22.1 0.8 64.0 57.3 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.1 27.1 0.7 64.8 56.7 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------