***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 24.8 24.9 26.1 1.3 65.7 62.0 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 25.0 26.2 26.0 0.9 61.7 58.3 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 25.2 26.0 26.2 1.2 63.1 60.8 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.5 22.5 0.7 60.6 56.9 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.9 23.7 0.8 60.8 57.9 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.2 25.0 21.2 1.0 61.2 58.8 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 24.7 25.7 26.0 1.1 62.7 60.5 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.0 21.6 1.0 62.8 58.8 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.5 24.5 1.0 62.8 59.6 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.8 22.8 1.2 64.8 60.8 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.6 26.0 23.8 0.8 60.7 57.2 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.7 22.9 0.8 61.9 57.3 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.3 22.8 0.7 57.4 55.7 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 25.3 26.2 24.4 1.4 67.3 62.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.8 24.4 0.2 54.6 52.6 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.5 23.1 0.6 58.3 55.6 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 24.8 24.9 25.6 0.8 60.5 57.8 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 25.7 22.1 1.4 67.8 62.3 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.6 25.7 26.0 0.9 61.9 58.6 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.8 20.0 19.3 1.0 63.1 58.6 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.4 25.3 1.0 61.2 58.9 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 25.2 26.2 25.7 1.1 62.8 60.2 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.2 26.3 26.0 1.1 62.7 59.9 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.7 26.4 24.4 1.4 67.6 62.7 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.0 24.1 0.9 60.7 58.5 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.8 26.0 22.4 1.1 64.7 59.7 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.3 25.2 1.2 63.8 61.4 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 23.2 0.5 57.5 54.5 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.3 20.6 21.1 1.3 66.7 61.3 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 25.0 25.7 26.2 1.1 63.1 60.3 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------