***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 21.9 19.2 20.6 -3.7 7.3 9.8 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 22.1 20.9 20.7 -4.0 7.1 10.1 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 22.2 18.8 20.3 -4.2 5.6 8.5 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 14.9 9.0 16.3 -4.6 2.7 3.6 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 22.3 15.9 17.4 -4.9 2.1 3.7 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 20.5 13.3 14.4 -5.3 1.3 2.1 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 21.5 20.6 20.7 -3.7 8.7 11.3 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 9.6 3.1 14.7 -5.3 1.8 2.9 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 21.6 16.2 18.6 -4.6 2.8 4.7 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 21.6 15.9 16.1 -5.0 2.5 4.0 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 22.0 15.5 17.4 -5.3 1.9 2.9 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 21.0 14.6 15.9 -5.3 1.6 2.7 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 21.9 14.2 16.6 -5.6 1.6 2.3 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 22.1 19.8 18.7 -4.1 6.0 8.1 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 22.8 17.4 19.2 -4.8 1.7 2.6 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 22.2 15.0 16.7 -5.4 1.8 2.4 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 99 1 0 100 21.0 20.2 20.2 -4.0 8.0 10.3 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 21.1 14.9 15.2 -4.9 2.6 4.3 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 21.7 20.9 20.6 -4.0 7.1 10.0 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 15.9 8.8 12.6 -5.3 1.7 2.9 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 22.2 17.3 19.6 -4.5 3.7 5.5 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 99 1 0 100 21.6 21.0 20.4 -3.7 9.4 11.9 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 22.3 20.7 20.4 -4.0 7.3 10.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 21.6 17.7 18.2 -4.5 4.4 6.2 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 22.8 17.0 18.8 -4.3 3.7 5.6 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.7 14.5 15.1 -5.4 1.6 2.8 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 21.8 19.1 19.9 -3.8 6.0 8.7 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 22.8 17.4 17.3 -4.9 1.8 2.6 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 15.8 10.2 14.3 -5.0 2.4 3.9 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 21.9 21.4 20.8 -3.8 8.0 11.0 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------