***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.0 14.7 -0.7 35.0 36.9 13.0 13.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.6 12.4 14.6 -0.8 31.8 35.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.5 14.9 -0.7 33.9 36.3 14.4 14.8 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.0 12.0 -0.9 23.9 30.3 9.1 9.8 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.2 12.3 -0.9 23.3 30.6 11.3 11.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.1 -0.6 29.5 34.3 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.1 14.7 -0.7 34.7 37.3 13.0 13.5 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.1 5.0 9.9 -0.7 28.1 33.3 5.1 5.7 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.5 12.3 12.5 -0.7 27.4 33.7 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 12.3 12.3 10.9 -0.6 29.5 35.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.2 11.8 -0.8 25.3 30.9 12.2 12.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.8 -0.8 25.9 31.5 10.4 10.7 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 11.7 11.5 10.6 -0.7 27.3 31.9 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.1 12.5 -0.6 34.4 37.0 13.0 13.6 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.2 13.5 -0.9 22.2 28.4 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.2 11.2 -0.9 22.6 29.3 12.5 12.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.1 14.3 -0.8 31.3 34.6 13.2 13.6 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.0 10.2 -0.5 33.6 37.6 11.0 11.3 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.8 14.6 -0.8 31.6 35.0 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.8 6.9 8.1 -0.6 31.6 35.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.2 13.8 -0.8 28.6 33.5 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.4 14.4 -0.7 34.8 37.3 12.4 12.9 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.5 14.4 -0.8 31.3 35.5 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 12.5 -0.5 35.9 38.8 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.2 -0.9 25.5 31.7 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.3 10.1 -0.7 31.6 34.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.0 -0.7 32.3 35.7 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.1 12.4 -0.9 22.7 29.3 11.5 11.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.3 9.5 -0.6 32.3 36.1 9.3 9.7 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.1 14.8 -0.7 34.0 37.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------