***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 13.8 14.6 16.8 0.1 50.5 50.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.6 14.0 16.6 -0.1 51.0 48.1 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.9 17.0 0.1 52.5 51.2 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.9 14.0 -0.1 45.4 49.0 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.8 14.1 -0.1 48.0 49.5 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.2 55.1 53.0 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.0 14.3 16.7 0.0 51.2 49.1 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.9 12.0 0.1 51.5 51.7 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.8 14.3 0.0 50.2 50.8 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.0 12.8 0.2 53.2 52.7 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.8 13.6 -0.1 49.0 50.0 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.2 12.8 0.0 48.8 50.1 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.2 12.1 0.0 48.2 50.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.9 14.4 0.1 54.2 52.7 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.6 15.3 -0.2 42.8 48.2 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.1 13.0 -0.1 48.1 49.6 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.2 16.3 -0.2 48.1 47.2 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.0 12.1 0.4 58.0 55.9 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.0 14.1 16.6 -0.1 52.7 48.9 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 9.8 0.3 55.7 54.8 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.9 15.7 0.0 49.1 50.1 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.7 16.3 0.0 51.6 49.1 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 12.4 13.5 16.5 0.1 55.1 50.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.7 14.3 0.3 57.1 54.4 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.4 15.1 0.0 48.0 49.6 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.7 12.0 0.0 48.7 51.5 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 12.2 13.4 16.0 0.1 50.3 50.7 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.4 14.3 -0.1 45.4 48.9 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.2 11.5 0.4 57.8 55.6 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.5 16.9 0.0 52.4 49.7 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------