***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2020.-14.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.9 16.4 0.5 58.3 55.8 14.2 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.4 16.2 0.3 58.6 53.9 13.2 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.2 16.5 0.4 57.4 55.3 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.2 13.7 0.2 55.6 53.2 10.1 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.6 0.1 53.4 52.2 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.2 11.8 0.4 59.1 56.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.0 16.4 0.4 59.2 55.5 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.6 11.4 0.2 54.9 53.6 6.0 6.5 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.1 13.8 0.2 55.3 53.6 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.9 12.3 0.2 55.2 54.5 13.4 13.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.6 13.1 0.1 52.6 51.6 13.0 13.5 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 12.3 0.1 54.6 52.8 11.0 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.5 11.7 0.2 52.9 52.5 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.8 13.8 0.2 53.3 53.4 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.2 14.9 0.1 55.3 52.2 14.1 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.4 12.5 0.1 52.1 51.8 13.3 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 16.0 0.2 56.2 53.1 13.6 14.9 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.4 11.6 0.4 58.5 56.8 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 16.2 0.2 57.0 53.2 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.5 9.3 0.3 55.9 56.0 7.8 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.2 15.3 0.2 55.9 53.8 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.0 15.8 0.2 55.5 52.9 13.2 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.2 16.0 0.2 54.6 52.9 13.0 14.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.3 13.7 0.3 56.8 55.7 13.3 13.7 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.3 14.7 0.3 55.7 53.6 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.0 11.6 0.3 58.5 55.2 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.4 15.7 0.5 58.2 55.7 13.0 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 14.0 0.2 55.1 52.8 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.1 10.9 0.3 57.4 56.2 9.8 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.9 16.5 0.4 59.1 55.4 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------