***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.4 15.0 0.2 55.4 53.2 12.2 13.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 14.7 0.1 52.0 50.8 12.0 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.9 15.0 0.0 51.8 50.9 13.8 14.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.6 12.2 0.0 49.2 49.9 8.6 9.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.5 12.5 -0.1 47.6 47.6 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 10.1 0.1 48.7 49.8 9.9 11.0 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.7 14.9 0.2 53.9 52.3 12.4 13.2 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.0 9.7 -0.2 44.1 45.4 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.6 12.6 -0.2 46.4 46.4 11.7 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.4 10.7 -0.2 46.0 46.1 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.1 11.8 -0.4 43.8 43.2 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.5 10.8 -0.2 45.1 46.5 9.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.6 10.7 -0.2 43.3 45.6 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 12.5 0.0 50.3 49.0 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.3 13.7 -0.2 46.1 47.4 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.3 11.4 -0.3 42.9 44.9 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.6 14.5 0.0 50.5 50.1 12.5 13.6 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.1 10.2 0.0 47.5 48.2 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.5 14.7 0.0 51.1 50.3 12.3 13.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.9 8.1 -0.1 45.3 47.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 13.9 -0.1 48.3 48.0 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.1 14.6 0.1 50.7 51.4 11.9 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.3 14.6 0.0 50.3 50.0 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.4 12.5 0.0 48.2 49.1 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.4 13.7 0.2 51.9 52.5 11.7 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.3 10.3 0.1 49.5 51.0 11.1 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 14.5 0.3 55.7 54.2 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.6 12.6 -0.1 46.2 47.7 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.4 9.4 -0.1 45.1 46.4 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 0.1 53.9 52.0 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------