***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 86.3 93.3 65.4 137.0 77.3 66.1 59.3 74.9 84.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 78.4 81.6 58.4 114.6 65.1 58.7 54.3 71.0 84.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 97.5 116.2 61.8 124.8 73.7 59.9 69.0 91.1 106.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 111.2 128.6 87.8 150.1 81.1 70.5 69.5 80.3 91.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 82.9 94.5 85.0 145.9 81.2 69.4 57.4 66.6 74.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 84.9 86.1 107.0 126.8 74.8 66.2 59.3 79.7 83.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 65.2 70.1 56.5 110.5 63.8 57.0 51.7 60.1 70.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 119.5 123.8 91.1 132.5 74.8 68.7 85.8 98.2 108.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 91.0 104.9 84.7 141.4 80.6 68.1 53.1 68.3 80.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 102.4 104.9 97.0 135.1 76.5 68.2 64.7 79.8 98.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 78.6 86.6 73.3 141.7 76.7 68.7 56.5 59.9 74.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 73.1 76.2 70.3 136.8 74.7 69.1 44.3 58.7 68.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 81.1 90.9 86.0 133.7 76.2 68.0 51.3 58.0 80.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 99.7 123.8 82.4 118.7 70.9 60.8 79.6 91.0 101.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 74.1 83.2 75.6 139.2 77.7 66.9 50.6 57.0 71.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 77.9 90.0 78.9 139.1 76.2 68.7 35.8 49.8 81.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 69.9 73.2 54.4 106.1 59.7 55.7 50.2 63.0 82.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 97.3 106.4 109.9 133.7 76.6 68.6 73.7 82.8 92.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 79.5 91.8 59.6 118.7 67.8 60.0 63.4 73.5 91.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 91.7 102.7 114.8 136.2 78.7 70.9 61.7 76.5 85.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 80.2 92.5 70.7 138.9 80.1 66.4 51.9 68.4 77.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 73.3 76.6 54.7 108.4 65.3 57.0 57.4 68.8 77.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 71.2 80.4 63.4 122.7 69.6 60.6 53.5 65.1 77.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 91.1 129.5 88.5 128.9 74.9 64.9 71.5 81.3 113.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 88.9 101.0 86.1 145.2 80.7 69.3 49.6 68.4 75.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 79.0 83.5 75.6 136.8 79.4 71.1 46.4 65.4 75.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 88.6 96.5 79.4 136.5 76.0 67.2 56.3 71.4 90.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 77.2 86.8 81.0 140.7 77.8 68.3 49.8 56.7 71.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 117.6 126.5 107.2 134.0 77.5 69.1 91.2 103.3 108.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 78.0 87.0 58.0 115.3 65.7 57.9 63.7 71.5 87.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------