***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.6 24.0 12.6 125.1 70.3 53.1 5.2 8.6 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 20.8 11.8 110.1 68.0 52.0 9.2 10.7 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.3 30.4 11.9 115.5 67.9 52.9 5.0 9.5 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.2 27.5 12.7 101.5 69.3 49.4 3.8 10.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.6 23.4 12.5 102.6 66.1 49.4 3.4 16.0 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 19.9 26.3 18.9 119.9 70.3 56.7 6.1 16.3 20.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.6 16.4 11.9 106.3 69.0 50.0 7.6 10.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.2 30.4 15.3 118.2 71.0 55.8 9.6 16.3 24.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.9 17.7 13.0 104.7 64.3 48.5 8.6 15.9 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.8 36.4 15.6 107.8 67.4 51.6 12.2 17.9 35.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.9 24.7 10.6 104.7 67.2 51.9 6.0 16.5 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 19.5 10.9 116.0 71.1 56.8 2.7 10.1 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.2 25.3 13.6 115.9 70.3 57.1 6.0 13.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 12.8 28.6 16.4 115.4 68.9 51.9 14.0 20.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.7 10.4 91.6 66.0 47.6 1.8 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.1 17.7 12.0 114.1 72.8 54.5 6.5 12.4 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.3 14.5 11.1 101.9 62.7 49.8 4.2 7.9 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.6 25.6 18.7 109.7 68.3 52.6 7.0 16.0 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.7 21.5 11.9 115.6 69.0 53.5 8.5 13.5 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.1 22.8 19.9 124.6 70.7 58.3 7.6 18.0 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.6 18.2 11.4 107.3 65.7 49.4 5.4 9.3 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.8 14.8 12.1 115.8 67.2 54.4 6.9 10.0 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.4 26.6 12.5 122.4 70.7 54.0 5.6 9.9 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.7 39.8 15.9 110.4 69.3 51.7 10.9 20.3 32.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.0 27.3 15.2 117.8 70.9 49.0 5.2 10.6 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.6 26.1 10.9 115.4 72.4 58.7 3.5 11.6 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.2 23.2 15.0 118.9 69.7 50.4 7.0 10.9 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.5 18.8 11.5 97.1 68.9 50.0 5.1 13.0 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.9 33.6 18.3 110.2 69.1 53.8 9.2 21.6 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 19.9 25.1 12.0 113.5 70.2 52.3 5.7 17.7 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------