***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 19.6 25.9 13.1 113.2 66.6 55.6 4.2 15.0 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 21.7 28.3 14.2 102.1 62.8 52.8 11.9 19.3 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.4 27.3 13.9 111.4 68.2 53.6 7.1 19.6 26.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 21.2 37.5 21.1 148.3 75.2 60.4 10.0 16.9 30.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.1 28.1 21.2 144.9 75.5 59.7 8.1 14.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.8 27.0 108.7 64.7 59.3 13.2 19.0 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 14.9 14.1 98.6 63.8 51.6 7.5 12.5 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.2 35.9 20.7 116.0 66.7 57.5 10.5 17.9 35.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.1 33.8 21.8 142.6 75.7 58.8 8.3 12.6 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.0 26.8 23.5 126.1 71.5 58.4 6.3 15.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.9 25.5 17.2 129.6 71.0 58.6 10.5 16.3 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.1 14.3 14.9 112.0 64.7 57.9 5.5 9.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 15.3 18.1 19.4 107.8 63.1 59.6 7.6 14.4 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 18.3 25.4 19.4 111.7 68.4 57.0 11.5 14.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.3 22.7 18.4 141.0 73.4 58.2 1.9 10.3 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.8 18.2 120.7 65.6 59.7 4.2 9.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 17.2 22.1 14.3 98.8 63.2 52.9 8.1 12.4 23.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 18.7 27.3 26.5 125.2 69.8 60.4 9.5 15.5 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 21.2 23.3 13.8 104.3 63.9 53.8 13.8 18.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.4 24.7 25.9 118.6 64.2 58.3 6.9 14.5 27.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.1 29.8 17.1 139.6 73.7 58.1 8.9 12.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 19.4 22.3 13.9 103.7 64.3 54.4 12.5 16.1 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 18.5 21.3 13.9 107.6 67.8 55.4 6.3 15.4 21.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 22.2 28.2 21.6 123.4 71.5 59.6 11.2 19.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.0 25.0 18.8 131.0 69.7 57.9 7.2 12.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 11.5 18.8 16.1 114.9 63.3 61.1 1.6 8.6 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.9 26.8 16.6 113.0 66.4 55.8 4.6 9.3 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.3 31.4 19.5 136.4 70.7 58.9 5.0 11.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.9 41.7 24.8 121.5 67.5 59.2 15.4 20.8 41.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 24.6 29.9 13.4 100.8 63.6 52.0 13.0 21.5 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------