***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.5 27.2 12.9 109.6 64.8 50.6 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 8.2 22.6 11.8 92.5 61.2 47.1 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 11.0 30.9 12.3 105.4 64.8 46.6 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 23.8 31.7 19.0 134.2 71.4 59.2 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.5 22.9 17.7 126.9 67.4 56.3 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 15.6 17.4 24.8 107.8 64.8 57.3 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.0 13.7 10.3 81.1 55.7 44.5 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 29.9 33.5 18.2 110.7 63.9 56.3 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.6 27.1 16.6 121.6 69.2 56.2 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 22.7 19.0 116.0 66.9 56.5 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.5 20.6 13.4 114.8 65.9 55.1 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 24.4 14.3 114.1 66.7 56.2 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.2 18.5 106.6 63.7 55.4 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.4 35.3 17.6 106.0 64.5 52.9 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 15.5 14.9 114.0 69.6 55.0 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.0 19.3 16.9 118.8 67.2 57.5 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 7.7 22.1 10.8 83.9 58.7 46.0 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 30.0 24.7 131.7 71.8 59.7 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.3 25.3 12.2 98.6 63.5 48.9 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 30.3 27.2 128.7 69.1 59.9 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.1 23.6 13.4 118.8 69.6 53.1 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.1 22.4 11.3 86.4 61.0 48.6 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 11.0 28.5 12.5 99.8 63.4 50.3 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.5 35.6 19.0 121.4 67.9 56.2 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 21.1 27.8 17.6 120.2 70.5 54.0 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.4 17.7 16.5 116.2 67.2 57.4 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.7 16.3 110.4 66.3 51.8 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.8 20.5 17.2 124.1 71.8 57.0 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 27.0 34.0 24.4 132.8 69.9 59.2 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 8.9 20.5 11.7 93.4 60.3 45.6 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------