***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.3 26.9 27.5 0.1 49.1 51.7 26.1 27.0 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.7 27.9 0.4 51.8 53.9 25.8 26.6 26.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.6 27.4 0.0 49.4 50.8 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.7 25.4 -0.3 46.7 47.9 18.6 19.8 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.2 26.5 25.3 -0.3 45.8 47.2 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.8 25.0 22.9 -0.4 46.8 46.1 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.6 27.8 0.5 53.3 55.1 25.3 26.6 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.5 23.5 -0.3 47.9 47.1 13.3 14.6 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.9 25.6 -0.3 46.0 47.3 24.6 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.7 24.1 -0.4 46.1 46.7 25.3 25.7 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.2 24.8 -0.2 47.0 47.7 25.3 26.2 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.3 24.7 -0.2 50.8 48.6 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.0 24.0 -0.3 47.5 47.3 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.1 25.2 -0.2 50.2 49.1 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.3 26.0 -0.1 46.9 49.5 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.8 24.5 -0.3 46.5 47.1 26.2 26.9 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.0 27.4 0.2 52.2 52.4 24.9 26.0 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.4 23.4 -0.4 46.6 46.9 24.1 25.4 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.0 27.8 0.3 51.7 53.3 24.9 26.0 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 20.5 21.2 -0.5 44.5 45.2 19.6 20.9 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.5 26.6 -0.2 47.4 48.3 25.3 26.6 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.8 26.5 27.1 0.0 52.0 51.0 24.9 26.5 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.3 27.3 0.2 51.5 52.6 25.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.6 25.2 -0.2 48.6 48.7 24.5 25.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.7 25.6 -0.1 48.9 49.5 25.6 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.9 24.2 -0.2 49.4 48.5 24.9 25.9 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.1 26.5 0.1 49.2 51.4 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.2 25.7 -0.3 46.0 47.9 26.6 27.3 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.5 22.4 -0.4 45.7 46.4 18.8 20.6 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.6 27.9 0.4 51.5 53.8 25.3 26.5 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------