***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.06.2015.-14.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 26.6 26.5 26.9 -0.1 52.4 52.8 25.2 26.2 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 26.3 26.0 27.3 0.3 56.4 55.8 25.1 25.8 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 26.3 26.2 26.8 -0.2 51.6 51.9 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 19.6 19.3 24.6 -0.5 50.2 48.2 17.9 19.3 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.0 26.6 24.6 -0.5 49.9 48.5 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.1 22.2 -0.5 50.7 47.5 23.8 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 25.9 25.7 27.4 0.4 59.0 56.7 24.8 25.4 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.1 22.8 -0.5 50.6 48.0 13.3 14.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.7 25.0 -0.5 50.0 48.6 24.5 25.7 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.2 25.8 23.5 -0.5 50.3 48.0 24.7 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 27.0 26.8 24.1 -0.4 52.5 49.0 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.8 23.9 -0.4 52.8 48.8 24.1 25.6 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.6 23.2 -0.5 51.3 47.6 25.4 26.6 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 26.3 26.1 24.7 -0.4 53.8 50.6 23.9 26.0 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 27.7 27.3 25.2 -0.5 50.0 48.3 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.5 23.8 -0.5 52.5 48.0 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.7 27.0 0.1 57.0 55.0 24.5 25.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 25.6 25.4 22.8 -0.5 51.5 48.2 23.9 25.3 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 25.6 25.4 27.2 0.2 54.3 54.9 24.2 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 20.9 20.2 20.5 -0.7 47.8 45.9 19.6 20.4 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.1 25.9 -0.4 50.8 49.0 24.8 26.1 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.9 26.6 0.0 52.0 53.5 24.7 25.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 26.1 25.9 26.7 0.0 54.0 53.9 24.3 25.8 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 25.7 25.4 24.7 -0.4 53.5 49.9 24.1 25.3 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 26.8 26.5 24.9 -0.4 51.4 49.9 25.2 26.5 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.6 23.2 -0.4 49.5 48.2 24.5 26.6 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 26.3 26.1 25.9 -0.1 52.5 52.3 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.7 27.4 24.8 -0.6 51.2 47.8 26.1 27.4 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.0 20.5 21.8 -0.6 50.5 47.7 19.2 20.5 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 26.0 25.6 27.4 0.2 55.2 55.2 24.8 25.6 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------