***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.7 24.5 -0.9 36.7 40.6 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.2 24.8 -0.9 40.8 41.6 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.0 24.3 -1.2 33.8 38.2 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 16.0 16.4 22.4 -1.2 32.9 36.8 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 23.7 23.9 22.2 -1.4 31.9 35.2 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 22.6 22.5 19.8 -1.5 31.0 34.0 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.1 23.8 24.8 -0.7 42.1 42.8 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 12.0 11.7 20.2 -1.7 29.5 33.4 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 23.0 23.6 22.5 -1.5 33.0 34.9 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 22.8 23.5 20.9 -1.7 31.7 33.9 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 23.7 23.7 21.6 -1.4 32.4 35.5 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 22.6 22.9 21.2 -1.5 29.9 34.7 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 24.0 23.7 20.6 -1.5 29.2 34.4 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 22.8 22.9 21.9 -1.8 28.3 32.8 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 24.1 24.5 23.1 -1.0 35.2 38.6 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 24.5 24.2 21.3 -1.4 31.7 35.4 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 25.2 23.6 24.5 -1.0 40.0 41.1 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 22.2 23.1 20.1 -1.8 31.0 32.7 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.8 24.6 -1.1 37.4 40.0 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 18.0 18.0 17.9 -1.9 28.9 31.4 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.8 23.5 -1.4 33.8 36.6 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.0 24.1 -1.2 36.3 38.6 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 23.3 23.7 24.0 -1.3 31.9 37.5 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 22.4 23.7 22.0 -1.7 30.8 33.9 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 23.1 23.9 22.7 -1.0 35.6 39.3 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 23.5 23.2 20.6 -1.5 28.4 34.8 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.7 23.6 -0.9 36.8 40.8 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 24.3 24.3 22.6 -1.2 33.5 36.8 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 17.9 18.2 19.1 -1.9 30.1 31.8 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.0 24.8 -0.9 39.5 41.3 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------