***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 22.3 20.6 21.3 -3.3 10.5 15.6 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 22.5 21.3 21.4 -3.3 9.8 15.7 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 22.4 21.0 20.9 -3.6 8.3 13.6 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 15.2 14.6 18.9 -3.0 13.7 16.8 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 22.6 20.8 19.1 -3.5 9.0 13.7 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 20.8 20.1 17.0 -2.9 14.3 17.2 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 22.1 21.0 21.6 -3.1 12.3 17.3 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 10.0 8.2 16.7 -3.7 8.1 13.2 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 21.8 19.5 19.9 -3.7 7.4 13.0 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 21.8 19.6 17.7 -3.8 6.5 12.3 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 22.3 20.1 18.7 -3.5 8.4 14.0 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 21.4 19.7 18.0 -3.3 11.1 15.7 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 22.3 20.9 18.4 -3.1 12.0 16.8 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 92 8 0 100 22.3 20.2 18.9 -4.0 6.5 11.0 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 23.4 23.4 21.6 -2.5 19.3 21.7 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 22.6 20.8 18.8 -3.1 11.1 16.0 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 21.5 20.6 21.0 -3.3 10.0 15.8 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 21.3 19.2 16.6 -4.0 6.8 11.3 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 21.9 21.1 21.1 -3.5 8.7 14.6 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 16.2 12.2 14.4 -4.1 6.0 10.3 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 22.4 20.5 20.6 -3.8 8.1 13.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 21.9 20.9 20.7 -3.5 8.6 14.3 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 22.5 20.9 20.7 -3.5 7.9 14.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 21.8 20.1 18.9 -3.9 7.4 11.9 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 23.0 21.3 20.0 -3.3 9.7 14.9 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 21.3 20.7 17.8 -2.7 15.0 19.5 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 88 12 0 100 22.1 21.1 20.7 -3.2 10.2 15.7 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 23.1 22.7 20.0 -2.8 15.8 19.0 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 16.1 13.3 15.7 -4.1 5.9 10.6 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 22.3 21.6 21.5 -3.3 10.0 15.8 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------