***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.0 15.3 -0.6 35.0 38.3 13.0 13.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.9 15.4 -0.5 39.9 40.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.4 15.2 -0.6 33.6 36.5 14.4 14.8 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 9.2 9.1 13.0 -0.6 31.4 34.3 9.1 9.8 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.4 11.3 12.8 -0.7 30.4 33.7 11.3 11.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.4 10.8 -0.6 33.0 34.2 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 15.5 -0.4 41.2 42.5 13.0 13.5 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.0 10.7 -0.7 30.0 32.8 5.1 5.7 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.4 13.3 -0.6 32.8 35.0 12.4 13.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.4 11.6 -0.7 31.1 33.2 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.4 -0.6 33.1 35.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.4 11.8 -0.6 33.1 35.9 10.4 10.7 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 11.4 -0.5 35.4 36.4 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.0 13.2 -0.7 32.4 34.4 13.0 13.6 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.3 13.5 14.2 -0.4 35.9 39.7 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 12.4 12.6 12.2 -0.5 35.3 36.4 12.5 12.8 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.1 13.4 15.0 -0.6 38.3 39.0 13.2 13.6 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 10.8 10.9 10.9 -0.7 29.8 33.2 11.0 11.3 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.0 15.3 -0.5 38.8 39.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 6.7 6.7 8.6 -0.9 24.5 29.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.5 12.2 14.5 -0.7 30.8 34.3 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 12.4 12.5 14.9 -0.7 36.0 37.6 12.4 12.9 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.6 14.9 -0.6 36.4 38.6 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.0 -0.7 32.8 35.1 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.8 -0.6 33.0 35.9 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.4 11.2 -0.6 33.7 34.2 11.4 11.7 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.6 -0.5 36.6 39.0 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.6 13.5 -0.5 34.6 37.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.2 10.1 -0.7 28.2 33.6 9.3 9.7 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.3 15.5 -0.5 39.0 40.3 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------