***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.8 17.3 0.1 54.5 52.9 13.6 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.7 17.5 0.3 56.3 55.0 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.0 17.2 0.0 52.8 51.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.0 15.0 -0.1 48.3 48.3 9.7 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.8 14.6 -0.1 47.7 48.6 11.8 12.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.6 12.6 -0.1 49.1 46.7 11.0 11.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.6 17.5 0.3 55.8 55.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.7 12.6 -0.1 50.1 49.1 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.7 15.0 -0.1 48.9 49.6 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.7 13.3 -0.1 49.9 49.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 14.1 0.0 49.4 49.8 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.3 13.7 0.0 49.5 50.3 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.2 13.2 -0.1 47.6 48.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.9 15.1 0.0 51.5 51.5 13.4 14.7 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 15.3 14.9 15.7 -0.1 47.8 49.0 13.9 15.0 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 13.9 -0.1 49.2 48.9 12.8 14.2 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.6 17.0 0.2 54.4 53.9 13.5 14.4 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.7 12.7 -0.1 50.0 49.6 11.8 12.7 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.4 17.4 0.2 56.0 54.3 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.0 10.6 -0.3 48.1 46.7 7.6 8.1 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.0 16.3 -0.1 49.7 50.2 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.7 16.9 0.1 52.8 53.4 12.8 13.5 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.7 17.0 0.2 56.4 53.8 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.4 14.9 -0.1 51.7 50.8 13.0 14.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.9 13.5 15.6 0.0 49.6 50.8 12.5 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.9 13.4 0.0 51.9 50.1 11.6 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.5 16.4 0.1 52.8 52.7 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.7 15.3 -0.1 48.6 48.9 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.5 11.9 -0.1 50.7 50.1 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.8 17.6 0.2 55.8 54.5 13.3 14.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------