***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 11.8 12.0 14.1 -1.3 28.3 31.2 12.2 13.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 11.8 11.9 14.4 -1.1 29.1 35.0 12.0 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 13.4 13.6 14.2 -1.2 30.4 33.2 13.8 14.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 8.4 8.6 12.0 -1.2 31.7 32.5 8.6 9.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.0 11.8 -1.1 32.8 33.2 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 9.7 9.9 9.9 -0.9 32.5 34.9 9.9 11.0 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.3 14.4 -1.1 29.8 35.0 12.4 13.2 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.4 9.9 -1.0 31.5 34.0 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.1 -1.2 32.0 32.3 11.7 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 11.4 12.0 10.6 -1.1 31.2 33.3 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 11.3 11.8 11.4 -0.9 34.2 35.7 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 9.6 9.7 10.9 -0.9 33.4 35.0 9.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.1 10.3 -1.0 32.7 33.2 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.3 -1.1 27.9 33.4 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 12.7 12.9 12.8 -1.0 30.1 33.9 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 11.6 11.9 11.1 -0.9 34.1 35.3 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.0 -1.2 27.5 34.0 12.5 13.6 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 10.0 10.1 10.0 -1.0 29.7 33.6 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.3 -1.1 29.4 34.8 12.3 13.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 6.0 6.1 7.9 -1.2 26.9 31.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 11.8 11.9 13.3 -1.3 30.8 31.9 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.3 13.9 -1.2 27.2 33.8 11.9 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 11.5 11.5 13.9 -1.1 31.2 34.5 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.8 12.1 -1.0 30.9 34.1 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.5 -1.3 27.8 30.7 11.7 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 10.0 10.9 10.2 -1.2 27.8 30.2 11.1 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.8 13.3 -1.3 28.7 31.4 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 10.7 10.6 12.4 -1.0 32.1 33.9 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 8.5 8.5 9.3 -1.0 27.7 33.9 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.2 14.5 -1.1 29.8 34.5 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------