***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.8 13.4 -0.9 35.7 35.7 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.4 12.9 -1.2 29.3 31.5 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 13.0 12.7 13.0 -1.2 29.4 30.7 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.9 7.6 11.1 -1.0 33.1 35.5 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.3 11.2 -1.0 31.7 33.7 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.2 9.3 -0.7 35.7 36.7 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.4 11.8 13.1 -1.0 31.4 34.5 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.5 2.6 8.8 -1.2 23.4 29.2 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.0 11.8 -0.9 32.7 35.1 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.6 9.9 -1.1 26.5 31.3 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.4 10.9 10.8 -0.9 32.1 33.8 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.7 -1.0 27.5 32.2 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.7 10.5 10.2 -0.6 38.9 39.7 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 11.0 10.6 11.1 -1.4 23.1 26.5 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 12.7 12.4 13.4 -0.3 45.8 45.3 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.3 10.7 -0.7 36.3 37.0 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.8 12.5 -1.3 27.9 30.9 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 8.8 8.9 8.9 -1.2 25.1 28.6 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 10.9 11.3 12.8 -1.3 27.3 30.0 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 4.7 4.2 6.5 -1.4 18.9 24.4 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.9 12.8 -1.1 29.5 31.9 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 10.5 10.3 12.4 -1.4 25.0 28.3 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 10.7 10.6 12.6 -1.3 25.1 28.7 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 10.4 10.5 11.1 -1.2 27.4 29.7 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.5 12.4 -0.9 34.5 35.2 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.8 9.2 -0.8 30.6 34.9 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.0 12.9 -0.8 37.4 37.3 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.2 12.0 -0.6 40.4 40.2 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.4 6.9 8.1 -1.3 23.1 27.8 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.5 13.2 -1.1 30.6 32.6 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------