***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 49.8 66.5 55.2 83.5 44.6 41.2 58.5 69.8 79.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 78.1 70.6 51.4 89.1 48.2 44.8 57.7 71.0 86.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 57.7 82.4 58.0 87.8 46.1 42.1 65.7 85.4 110.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 60.3 74.9 54.9 76.3 36.3 36.3 69.5 80.7 94.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 48.4 58.6 51.3 73.4 33.3 33.2 58.2 67.1 73.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 53.7 59.1 63.0 73.7 30.5 32.0 60.0 75.1 82.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 63.9 58.3 52.2 90.9 48.7 45.7 44.8 58.8 71.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 80.5 80.4 58.2 69.0 28.8 30.1 84.0 98.1 110.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 49.8 52.3 54.7 74.5 34.7 33.4 52.2 69.2 79.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 60.5 63.7 61.0 71.5 32.0 31.5 65.1 83.1 93.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 48.4 54.9 47.6 70.5 31.2 31.2 55.0 59.8 71.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 41.8 40.0 44.1 62.9 26.4 27.9 42.5 56.3 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 47.6 49.0 49.0 66.0 29.6 30.3 50.2 57.1 80.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 74.0 87.4 68.2 79.4 40.0 36.7 85.4 91.4 105.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 36.1 50.8 44.1 71.8 37.2 35.6 49.4 54.6 68.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 35.1 34.3 47.3 67.6 29.2 30.5 35.1 48.9 79.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 71.3 61.8 48.9 86.0 47.3 44.5 47.7 63.9 80.1 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 69.1 70.2 68.8 74.0 32.5 33.0 70.6 80.6 89.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 61.2 70.5 54.1 90.1 48.0 44.7 65.5 72.8 92.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 52.2 58.2 67.8 74.2 29.1 32.2 59.7 76.3 87.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 46.0 54.2 54.5 78.5 39.6 36.8 51.9 67.6 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 56.9 68.0 51.9 86.0 47.0 43.9 56.7 70.4 77.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 51.8 61.9 58.8 92.2 50.2 44.6 53.5 61.8 73.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 67.8 75.8 65.5 80.7 41.0 37.3 72.2 77.9 113.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 51.1 56.4 57.6 78.2 40.6 37.6 51.4 67.4 79.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 38.3 35.8 42.2 62.9 27.5 27.7 45.3 67.3 73.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 49.1 63.9 58.9 82.5 43.3 40.5 58.1 68.9 84.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 46.0 47.1 50.0 72.1 33.9 34.4 46.8 61.2 69.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 81.5 85.9 70.7 75.0 32.8 33.4 85.9 101.6 108.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 55.8 69.4 53.9 89.6 47.3 44.0 58.7 71.9 88.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------