***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.6 13.6 87.3 58.3 48.6 4.6 8.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.7 13.6 12.6 90.7 56.0 49.0 8.0 10.7 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 19.1 23.7 16.1 105.1 63.3 51.8 5.0 9.0 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.5 21.0 16.0 100.5 63.7 52.6 4.4 12.2 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.5 22.7 15.0 98.8 62.6 51.7 3.2 15.5 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.9 18.6 101.2 61.3 50.1 2.8 9.2 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.5 10.3 12.1 84.7 55.6 48.3 7.1 9.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.8 20.3 17.8 91.9 56.4 49.3 8.2 16.7 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.9 15.8 97.6 60.6 51.7 6.8 14.5 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.1 27.7 18.7 94.0 57.6 50.1 8.2 21.8 32.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.2 21.6 13.5 94.2 60.2 49.5 6.0 16.1 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 16.6 13.5 89.3 58.5 47.7 3.2 6.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.1 15.9 15.2 94.8 62.2 48.7 6.5 10.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.2 22.3 18.8 89.3 55.7 48.4 12.1 21.4 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.0 12.1 93.5 65.1 51.8 1.1 3.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.9 12.6 14.3 93.7 63.3 48.7 5.4 10.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.5 11.9 84.7 57.4 49.1 3.9 7.9 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 19.3 17.4 21.3 93.6 57.2 50.0 5.9 15.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.6 13.7 95.4 59.1 50.0 6.9 12.1 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.4 21.6 99.4 58.0 50.9 8.7 13.3 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.6 15.1 97.1 61.1 51.4 4.7 8.9 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.6 13.5 86.8 60.5 49.4 3.2 8.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.8 16.7 15.1 99.0 62.0 50.6 5.7 10.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.4 25.1 19.4 100.1 60.5 51.7 9.4 19.2 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.8 14.6 85.5 56.8 48.5 4.5 10.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 13.5 102.3 61.8 48.9 4.5 10.5 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 13.1 14.3 84.3 55.6 47.6 6.9 11.5 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.6 20.0 15.3 102.2 66.0 52.5 3.9 13.7 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 31.9 22.2 96.0 58.1 50.7 11.1 18.9 33.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 19.3 17.3 13.4 93.1 57.4 48.7 5.2 15.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------