***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.5 24.9 13.8 84.6 56.3 43.8 5.5 15.9 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.6 26.7 13.6 93.8 59.5 47.9 12.7 18.9 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 11.6 25.0 14.3 85.1 55.6 43.9 10.8 23.1 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.5 16.8 12.2 68.7 49.5 38.7 10.0 16.9 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 7.9 14.2 11.7 69.4 49.5 38.0 7.6 14.4 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.0 16.3 14.7 68.7 44.8 37.3 13.6 19.5 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.9 16.5 13.8 96.7 61.2 47.4 8.9 11.9 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 10.3 15.3 14.1 70.2 46.9 39.5 13.0 18.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 7.9 17.2 12.3 70.6 50.0 38.1 11.9 17.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.0 16.8 14.2 69.5 47.1 39.0 5.2 17.6 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.5 11.8 10.4 67.7 46.8 38.6 10.3 14.9 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 4.3 9.2 10.5 62.2 43.7 35.7 5.4 11.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 5.9 8.2 10.2 53.8 39.5 31.3 6.5 14.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.6 15.9 18.1 85.4 54.3 43.9 11.9 14.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.9 10.0 69.1 52.8 40.3 2.3 8.8 20.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.6 5.6 10.3 59.9 43.2 34.4 2.7 8.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.1 19.9 13.3 93.3 60.9 48.5 7.6 11.5 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 9.1 15.4 16.5 70.9 48.3 38.5 10.7 16.7 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.2 21.8 14.0 93.2 58.7 48.0 9.0 19.9 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 14.6 16.5 73.0 47.1 39.3 6.9 15.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.1 12.8 12.9 75.8 51.6 40.6 9.3 12.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.7 19.7 14.1 92.5 58.8 49.4 11.1 15.8 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 8.9 19.1 15.2 96.8 60.6 48.6 11.2 16.8 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.9 23.1 16.3 81.2 54.3 41.7 14.6 21.5 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.1 14.2 78.4 53.5 41.7 6.0 8.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.0 3.1 8.3 51.0 38.5 30.6 1.9 6.9 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 21.7 14.5 82.9 55.7 43.2 4.0 8.4 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.3 12.4 11.3 66.4 49.4 38.4 5.8 12.4 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 13.6 23.1 17.4 74.1 48.8 39.5 13.3 23.5 31.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 12.0 21.8 13.9 92.6 59.6 47.1 13.0 19.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------