***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.3 24.7 17.8 102.7 60.5 51.7 8.2 17.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.3 24.9 16.2 104.8 63.0 50.0 9.5 15.0 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.0 31.1 19.6 112.8 64.0 51.8 7.8 20.9 33.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.4 23.5 19.0 103.0 62.2 48.5 10.1 16.5 26.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.4 21.7 17.9 97.1 57.9 45.3 11.4 15.1 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.2 12.8 19.6 86.8 48.2 42.0 10.8 13.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.5 22.3 15.9 105.7 63.8 50.9 6.1 13.7 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 19.5 30.0 17.4 90.5 52.6 45.6 23.0 28.5 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.4 22.4 19.4 99.5 59.2 47.8 10.6 19.6 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 17.2 19.1 95.6 56.2 47.3 10.0 13.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.3 17.3 97.7 56.1 46.1 10.7 14.9 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.6 10.0 14.2 79.9 48.9 40.7 7.5 10.3 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.9 14.2 17.5 90.5 53.6 44.7 6.0 11.6 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 30.8 33.7 21.8 102.3 60.9 48.1 16.4 25.0 36.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.0 15.4 92.3 59.0 45.3 5.9 9.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.8 10.8 16.7 91.8 52.3 43.6 7.2 10.6 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.1 26.6 14.6 96.6 60.5 49.4 5.9 14.0 32.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 14.9 25.5 21.0 95.8 55.0 48.1 17.3 21.3 31.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.6 26.2 17.8 111.5 63.8 50.7 5.2 19.8 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 10.6 22.6 20.3 98.2 53.9 48.5 7.3 18.6 27.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.2 18.6 19.2 103.9 62.5 49.4 10.2 14.7 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.5 15.5 98.3 60.6 50.3 8.6 18.4 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.6 27.1 20.5 121.5 67.4 52.0 13.2 19.5 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.9 26.6 21.0 100.5 58.9 48.3 15.9 22.2 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.2 22.4 20.3 101.3 60.3 49.4 11.6 17.0 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.3 11.0 14.8 80.4 51.1 39.2 4.9 10.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.5 19.6 19.5 102.0 59.7 50.4 8.1 16.0 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.8 18.1 17.1 99.8 60.8 46.8 5.8 12.5 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 16.6 28.2 21.0 92.8 53.1 46.9 15.8 26.0 33.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.9 22.4 17.4 109.6 64.5 52.1 10.1 16.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------