***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.0 9.9 59.3 40.3 35.8 1.9 5.3 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.9 9.1 65.6 45.0 41.8 1.9 7.1 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.8 7.9 48.3 38.1 32.5 1.8 4.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.6 7.7 39.1 31.1 25.8 4.6 9.9 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 2.3 2.5 6.8 34.5 26.3 22.4 3.1 7.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 4.2 4.8 10.1 44.1 27.9 26.3 7.3 11.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.6 10.5 75.4 50.3 42.9 1.3 4.5 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 9.3 8.8 8.9 34.8 22.6 21.0 12.1 22.2 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 1.9 1.1 7.2 35.6 25.7 23.0 2.8 9.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.6 9.1 36.1 25.1 22.2 5.3 10.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 2.5 3.1 6.4 31.3 25.2 21.7 7.4 8.6 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 3.9 3.2 6.0 29.2 21.5 19.0 8.6 13.9 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 1.4 1.7 6.1 30.9 24.4 20.4 3.2 8.6 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.3 9.4 9.5 42.7 35.5 30.4 8.9 13.4 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 3.8 6.6 38.5 37.8 30.5 3.4 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 3.7 4.4 6.0 31.1 25.6 21.4 6.3 11.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.4 5.6 9.1 67.7 45.2 42.2 2.2 6.2 11.0 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 5.0 6.2 10.0 40.2 25.5 23.2 7.6 14.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.9 8.6 58.8 42.4 39.4 2.7 5.3 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 5.3 6.1 9.4 35.1 23.3 20.9 8.2 11.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.0 7.3 39.6 28.1 25.4 4.1 6.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 6.8 8.9 64.3 46.6 42.4 4.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.7 8.1 50.6 37.4 35.2 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 5.7 9.3 8.7 42.0 31.1 27.0 9.8 12.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.2 4.0 8.6 46.4 33.9 29.8 3.7 8.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 2.1 3.9 5.5 29.2 23.5 20.1 5.9 9.6 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.4 2.9 10.6 59.7 41.2 36.0 1.6 7.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.5 6.3 30.8 29.9 23.9 3.7 9.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 6.9 7.1 10.1 40.4 25.6 23.9 11.1 14.7 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.9 9.1 61.7 45.0 40.1 3.2 6.3 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------