***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.3 25.8 0.4 62.6 57.2 24.3 25.2 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 24.4 24.6 25.1 -0.5 42.0 43.2 24.3 25.1 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.2 25.9 0.3 62.0 55.7 24.3 25.0 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 19.7 20.2 24.3 1.6 83.8 75.2 17.4 18.0 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 26.6 27.1 24.6 1.1 77.3 67.6 24.7 25.5 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 25.6 26.1 22.5 1.7 85.1 76.9 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.7 25.1 -0.4 45.1 45.1 23.9 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 14.8 15.4 22.9 1.5 81.1 72.6 12.7 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 25.9 26.4 24.7 0.8 73.7 63.5 24.3 24.6 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 26.0 26.3 23.3 1.1 76.2 67.0 23.9 24.9 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 26.4 26.9 24.7 1.2 78.5 69.4 24.6 25.2 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 25.6 25.9 24.4 1.6 82.2 73.9 23.6 24.3 25.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 26.9 27.4 24.0 1.5 81.5 72.5 24.3 25.2 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.5 23.9 0.4 61.3 57.3 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 27.3 27.7 26.2 1.6 81.7 74.6 25.4 25.9 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 27.5 28.4 24.5 1.6 82.7 73.8 25.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 23.7 23.9 24.8 -0.6 39.8 42.1 23.6 24.6 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.8 22.6 1.1 77.4 67.8 23.4 24.1 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.5 25.3 -0.4 45.6 45.5 23.7 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 21.2 22.2 20.8 1.8 85.6 76.6 18.9 19.5 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.7 25.7 0.9 72.6 64.1 24.2 24.9 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.7 24.7 -0.5 43.2 43.9 24.1 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.2 25.4 -0.1 52.0 49.9 24.1 25.0 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.6 24.2 0.7 68.6 61.0 23.7 24.5 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.6 24.6 0.8 70.3 63.2 24.3 25.0 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 26.2 26.9 24.0 1.8 84.7 76.0 24.1 24.8 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.9 25.1 0.5 63.4 58.2 24.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 27.2 28.0 25.1 1.8 84.8 76.9 25.2 26.1 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.8 21.6 21.9 1.3 80.4 70.4 18.5 19.5 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.1 25.4 -0.3 48.4 46.6 24.0 25.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------