***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 25.1 27.6 27.2 0.5 57.3 54.2 25.2 25.9 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.1 26.6 26.8 0.0 54.7 50.4 25.2 26.0 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 23.8 26.4 27.5 0.5 58.0 54.5 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 19.6 21.0 25.7 1.3 69.2 61.6 18.1 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 24.7 27.5 25.7 0.9 62.4 57.8 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 27.0 25.7 23.2 1.0 65.2 59.0 24.0 25.1 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 26.7 26.4 26.8 0.1 55.2 51.0 24.7 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 13.4 15.1 24.0 0.9 65.1 58.4 13.1 14.8 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.2 26.6 25.7 0.7 62.1 56.2 24.0 25.6 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 24.2 26.1 24.4 0.8 62.9 56.9 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 24.8 26.8 25.5 0.8 62.2 57.5 24.5 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 24.2 25.9 25.6 1.1 66.2 59.3 24.0 25.1 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 28.1 27.4 24.6 1.1 64.7 59.4 24.8 25.8 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 23.8 26.1 25.2 0.6 59.7 55.6 24.6 25.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.8 26.9 1.2 69.7 61.0 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.4 28.2 25.3 1.1 65.4 60.0 25.7 26.2 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.0 26.8 0.1 54.9 51.6 24.8 25.4 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.6 25.8 23.8 0.9 64.9 57.6 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.8 27.0 0.1 54.9 51.0 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 19.6 21.6 21.4 1.1 67.3 59.8 19.0 21.0 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 24.1 26.4 26.8 0.8 62.9 57.4 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.4 26.6 0.2 54.8 52.4 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.8 25.8 27.1 0.2 55.5 52.4 24.7 25.6 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 23.6 26.0 25.3 0.7 62.5 56.3 24.2 25.2 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 24.5 26.6 25.6 0.8 61.0 57.3 25.3 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 27.4 27.3 25.1 1.1 64.8 60.0 24.8 25.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.6 26.0 26.3 0.5 57.3 54.6 24.7 25.4 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.8 26.1 1.3 70.5 61.9 26.0 27.0 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 18.9 21.3 22.9 1.0 64.8 58.1 19.0 20.3 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.7 26.1 26.9 0.1 54.5 51.1 24.8 25.9 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------