***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 28.1 28.2 26.8 1.0 65.9 60.8 25.2 27.2 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.7 26.7 26.3 0.3 54.1 54.4 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 28.0 27.1 27.2 1.1 65.7 60.9 24.7 26.5 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 21.1 21.5 25.4 2.0 78.2 68.4 17.6 19.9 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 28.6 28.5 25.4 1.5 71.2 64.2 25.3 27.0 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.2 22.8 1.5 70.5 65.2 23.7 25.5 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.2 26.3 0.4 55.8 55.2 24.3 26.0 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 16.8 17.2 23.8 1.7 72.7 65.0 13.1 14.5 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 28.2 27.8 25.4 1.3 69.2 62.9 25.0 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 28.2 27.6 24.2 1.5 70.3 63.7 24.8 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 28.8 27.9 25.2 1.5 69.6 64.0 25.1 26.8 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 27.7 27.5 25.3 1.8 73.6 65.8 24.3 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 28.8 28.9 24.2 1.7 72.9 65.5 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.0 24.8 1.1 65.2 61.1 24.3 26.0 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 29.3 29.7 26.5 1.9 75.2 68.5 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 29.4 29.6 25.0 1.8 74.8 66.0 25.5 27.6 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.8 26.1 0.4 55.0 54.1 24.1 25.6 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 27.2 27.2 23.7 1.6 71.6 64.6 24.5 25.4 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.1 26.5 0.4 55.4 55.5 24.0 25.7 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 23.0 23.8 21.3 1.9 76.1 66.8 19.7 20.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 28.2 27.9 26.6 1.5 71.5 63.9 25.1 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.3 26.0 0.4 55.3 55.1 24.8 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 24.0 26.9 26.6 0.6 59.4 57.4 24.2 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 27.5 26.7 25.1 1.4 68.8 62.8 24.2 25.8 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 28.4 28.0 25.3 1.4 70.5 63.8 25.3 26.7 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 28.4 29.0 24.7 1.8 76.0 66.3 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 27.6 27.2 26.0 1.1 66.1 61.2 24.5 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 29.1 29.6 25.8 2.0 77.7 68.9 25.9 27.7 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 22.9 22.8 22.7 1.7 72.5 65.1 19.5 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.3 26.4 0.5 56.3 56.1 24.5 26.0 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------