***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.6 24.6 -0.5 44.6 46.9 22.3 24.1 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.7 24.1 -1.3 36.8 40.6 23.3 24.6 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 22.5 24.5 24.7 -0.6 46.0 46.5 23.0 24.6 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 19.2 17.6 22.7 0.6 58.2 56.1 16.1 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 23.2 25.2 23.2 0.0 52.9 51.7 23.3 24.8 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 25.2 24.7 20.9 0.5 59.5 55.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 22.4 23.4 24.0 -1.2 38.1 41.0 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 14.5 13.7 21.5 0.5 58.4 54.7 11.6 13.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.6 24.7 23.5 -0.2 49.6 50.0 22.9 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 22.2 23.7 21.9 0.1 52.3 51.7 22.8 23.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 23.5 25.2 23.5 0.2 55.4 53.1 23.2 25.0 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 25.3 24.7 22.9 0.6 60.4 55.5 22.5 23.5 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 26.9 25.6 22.8 0.3 56.1 53.9 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 22.5 24.3 23.1 -0.3 50.1 48.4 23.2 24.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 26.9 25.9 24.9 0.6 58.6 56.4 24.3 25.3 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 24.0 25.9 23.1 0.4 57.4 54.7 23.7 25.4 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.2 23.8 -1.2 37.7 40.6 22.7 24.3 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 22.1 24.0 21.3 0.2 54.6 52.6 22.2 23.6 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.5 24.3 -1.1 39.2 42.1 23.0 24.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.1 20.1 19.4 0.8 63.0 56.9 18.0 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.3 24.6 24.5 -0.1 51.0 50.1 22.9 24.6 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.0 23.9 -1.0 41.4 42.4 23.2 24.5 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.5 24.2 24.4 -0.8 43.9 44.5 23.3 24.4 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 22.1 23.8 23.1 -0.2 49.2 49.5 22.9 23.9 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 22.6 24.6 23.3 -0.2 48.1 49.3 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 26.0 25.5 22.2 0.6 60.3 55.5 23.2 24.6 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 22.3 23.8 23.9 -0.5 44.4 47.0 23.0 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 27.2 26.1 23.7 0.7 60.3 57.2 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 20.9 19.2 20.6 0.4 57.0 53.8 17.9 18.9 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 22.5 23.9 24.3 -1.1 38.6 41.9 23.2 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------