***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 26.2 26.6 24.7 0.7 60.9 58.7 23.8 26.1 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.6 24.1 23.3 -1.1 37.7 37.3 23.0 25.0 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.5 25.8 24.4 0.3 57.5 54.3 23.5 25.1 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 19.5 20.2 23.3 2.6 85.5 80.4 15.3 17.5 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.2 23.9 2.0 78.3 73.0 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 25.2 26.7 23.0 3.7 91.7 88.4 22.1 22.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.1 23.7 23.3 -0.8 40.2 40.4 23.1 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 14.4 15.5 22.5 2.9 85.7 80.6 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 25.9 26.4 24.3 1.4 71.2 66.8 22.3 24.7 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.6 26.4 22.6 1.9 76.1 71.7 22.7 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 26.6 27.2 24.7 2.4 82.7 76.6 23.1 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 25.3 26.0 23.9 3.1 88.9 83.1 21.9 23.1 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 26.3 28.4 24.6 2.8 88.7 81.1 23.0 24.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 24.7 25.2 22.7 0.2 55.3 53.1 23.1 24.3 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 27.3 27.9 26.3 2.5 85.1 80.4 23.7 25.3 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 27.0 28.5 24.7 2.9 88.8 82.2 23.8 24.9 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 22.4 22.3 22.5 -1.5 30.2 32.0 22.5 24.4 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.6 21.6 1.9 75.0 70.5 21.7 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.6 23.4 -1.0 41.1 39.7 22.9 24.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 20.8 22.2 21.0 3.4 90.6 84.3 16.7 19.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 25.2 26.5 25.1 1.3 69.3 65.2 22.8 24.9 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 22.8 22.5 22.3 -1.6 29.1 31.7 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.3 24.4 23.6 -0.5 46.4 45.2 23.2 24.9 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 24.1 25.7 23.1 0.8 62.9 59.3 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 26.2 26.6 24.0 1.2 67.9 64.5 23.1 25.3 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 25.5 27.5 23.9 3.8 91.6 87.9 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 25.2 26.2 24.2 0.7 61.3 59.4 22.9 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 26.9 28.1 24.8 3.0 88.3 83.6 23.7 25.1 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.5 21.2 21.4 2.4 80.2 74.9 16.3 19.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.5 24.4 23.8 -0.6 45.6 44.0 23.1 25.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------