***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.7 15.7 0.3 62.0 56.5 12.8 13.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.0 15.1 -0.2 46.1 45.5 12.4 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.6 15.8 0.2 61.1 56.3 14.2 14.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.9 13.6 0.7 72.7 65.8 9.2 9.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.3 13.8 0.6 70.0 63.7 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 11.5 11.8 11.8 1.0 82.4 74.7 10.3 10.7 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.1 -0.2 47.0 45.8 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.0 6.3 11.5 0.8 77.7 69.8 5.1 5.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.3 13.9 0.5 70.4 63.5 12.4 12.9 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.4 12.3 0.7 74.3 66.9 12.2 12.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.2 13.5 0.7 75.2 68.0 12.2 12.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.5 12.6 0.9 79.5 71.0 10.4 10.6 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.7 12.9 12.2 0.8 77.7 69.2 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.8 13.6 0.4 65.4 60.5 13.0 13.5 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.3 15.3 0.8 78.8 70.4 13.3 13.8 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.9 13.0 0.8 78.8 69.1 12.4 12.7 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.3 14.7 -0.4 40.6 42.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.9 12.4 11.6 0.7 77.6 68.3 11.0 11.2 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.7 13.2 15.2 -0.2 48.9 47.7 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.3 9.7 0.9 82.2 72.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.2 15.2 0.5 71.0 63.2 12.3 12.9 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 12.3 12.6 14.7 -0.3 42.6 43.4 12.4 12.7 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 15.2 0.0 54.5 51.9 12.5 12.8 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.4 13.5 0.5 69.7 62.3 12.5 13.0 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.6 14.6 0.5 67.6 60.5 12.4 12.7 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 12.3 12.7 11.8 1.0 82.2 73.5 11.2 11.5 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.5 15.1 0.3 63.3 57.1 12.4 12.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.9 14.2 0.9 79.3 70.4 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.5 11.0 0.8 79.1 69.8 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.7 15.4 -0.1 51.1 48.4 12.9 13.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------