***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.7 17.0 0.3 54.9 54.6 13.8 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 12.4 14.2 16.7 0.1 55.8 52.0 12.8 13.8 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.2 17.3 0.4 59.1 56.2 14.7 15.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.2 14.9 0.8 66.1 60.8 9.4 10.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.7 13.1 14.8 0.6 61.4 58.8 12.0 12.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.9 12.5 12.7 0.7 65.2 61.8 11.0 11.4 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.2 16.8 0.1 54.3 52.1 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.1 12.6 0.6 61.5 59.5 5.0 6.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.9 14.0 14.8 0.5 59.0 57.8 13.1 13.9 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.0 13.4 0.6 60.7 59.0 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.2 14.4 0.6 62.2 59.8 12.9 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.4 13.6 0.7 63.7 60.7 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 14.3 13.7 12.9 0.6 63.6 60.2 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.8 14.9 0.5 58.4 57.8 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.0 16.3 0.7 64.6 60.3 13.8 14.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.2 14.9 13.8 0.7 65.3 61.3 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 13.1 14.5 16.5 0.1 55.1 51.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.2 12.7 0.7 64.6 61.1 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.0 14.0 16.8 0.2 56.3 52.9 13.2 13.8 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 9.4 8.6 10.5 0.7 65.0 61.1 7.5 7.8 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 12.6 14.2 16.3 0.5 59.6 57.8 12.8 13.8 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.6 16.4 0.2 56.1 52.9 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.3 16.7 0.2 55.5 54.3 12.7 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.7 14.7 0.5 61.0 58.9 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.7 15.5 0.4 58.1 55.7 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 13.8 13.1 12.7 0.7 66.0 61.3 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.2 13.5 16.2 0.3 55.9 54.3 12.3 13.4 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 13.9 13.4 15.3 0.8 66.7 61.6 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.1 11.3 12.1 0.7 65.0 61.3 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.5 16.9 0.2 55.9 52.9 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------