***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.1 16.2 0.2 53.8 54.1 13.8 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.6 15.8 0.0 52.5 51.4 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.6 16.4 0.3 55.9 55.3 14.9 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.5 11.9 14.1 0.6 61.1 58.6 10.0 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.0 13.8 0.3 55.7 54.9 12.3 12.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.4 11.9 0.6 63.0 59.8 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.9 15.9 0.0 51.2 50.8 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.3 7.1 11.7 0.4 58.2 56.8 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.4 13.9 0.3 53.8 54.6 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 12.5 14.1 12.4 0.3 56.1 55.7 13.2 13.7 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.7 13.3 0.3 54.4 54.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.0 12.6 0.4 58.3 56.5 11.0 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.7 11.9 0.3 56.4 55.1 12.5 13.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.0 14.0 0.4 58.2 57.1 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.3 15.4 0.6 61.3 58.9 14.1 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.4 12.8 0.4 58.1 55.9 13.0 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 15.7 0.0 52.8 51.8 13.5 15.0 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.1 13.0 11.8 0.5 59.9 58.4 11.8 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.6 15.9 0.1 53.6 52.8 13.3 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 8.9 8.5 9.6 0.6 61.2 59.0 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.4 15.4 0.4 58.3 56.7 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.2 15.6 0.1 54.2 52.9 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 15.9 0.2 55.2 55.0 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.5 13.8 0.4 57.1 57.2 13.1 13.8 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.8 14.8 0.4 57.0 55.8 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.4 12.7 11.8 0.4 55.0 56.0 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.3 15.5 0.2 53.8 54.3 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.3 14.5 0.6 62.0 59.5 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.0 11.2 11.2 0.6 63.5 59.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.3 16.0 0.0 52.2 51.7 13.8 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------