***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.7 14.7 -0.3 46.5 47.1 11.6 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.6 14.1 -0.8 37.4 40.7 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 13.0 14.2 14.8 -0.3 45.4 46.8 13.5 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.7 12.4 0.0 49.5 51.0 8.3 9.7 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.4 12.9 0.0 49.1 51.5 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.7 10.7 0.5 61.2 57.6 9.6 10.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.1 14.1 -0.8 36.4 41.0 12.0 13.4 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.2 10.6 0.3 54.8 55.5 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.2 13.0 0.0 51.1 51.4 11.5 12.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 11.4 0.2 52.2 53.3 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.9 12.6 0.3 53.2 54.5 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.7 11.7 0.4 55.9 56.5 9.4 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.9 11.4 0.3 56.1 55.4 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.0 12.8 0.0 47.1 50.6 11.9 13.2 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.5 14.3 0.2 54.5 53.8 12.8 13.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.5 12.1 0.2 53.9 54.3 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.7 13.8 -0.9 35.6 39.8 12.3 13.6 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.9 10.7 0.2 53.6 54.3 10.3 10.8 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 11.6 12.3 14.3 -0.7 38.3 41.8 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.1 8.9 0.4 56.5 56.3 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.2 14.2 0.0 50.6 50.8 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.8 13.9 -0.8 37.0 40.6 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.7 14.4 -0.5 40.6 44.5 11.3 12.8 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.6 12.5 12.7 0.0 49.1 51.6 11.3 12.5 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.3 13.7 -0.1 48.3 49.6 11.2 12.6 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.8 10.8 0.4 58.7 56.0 10.3 11.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.4 14.1 -0.3 45.7 47.3 11.4 12.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.4 13.1 0.2 53.5 53.6 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.6 10.2 0.4 55.9 55.8 8.4 9.4 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.6 12.3 14.4 -0.7 38.3 42.1 12.2 13.0 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------