***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 13.0 13.1 14.8 0.8 58.8 60.2 11.7 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 13.2 12.9 13.6 -0.2 45.6 45.0 11.6 13.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 15.2 15.1 14.7 0.6 54.2 56.9 13.2 15.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 10.4 10.9 12.9 1.4 70.2 69.1 8.2 9.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 12.0 12.3 13.5 1.3 69.5 69.1 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 10.7 12.0 11.6 2.2 92.9 86.1 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 13.0 12.6 13.6 -0.2 46.8 46.4 11.5 12.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 6.2 6.6 11.3 1.8 86.6 80.8 3.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.9 13.7 1.3 71.0 70.0 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.4 12.0 1.6 79.6 75.9 11.2 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 12.8 13.1 13.6 1.7 82.1 79.1 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 11.1 11.5 12.5 2.0 88.2 82.3 9.0 10.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.6 12.6 1.7 86.0 79.5 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 12.9 12.9 12.7 0.8 56.1 59.0 11.9 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.6 15.2 1.9 84.4 80.0 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 13.5 13.9 13.1 1.7 81.3 78.3 11.4 12.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 12.8 -0.8 39.3 37.4 12.0 12.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.7 11.3 1.5 75.6 72.8 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 12.9 12.6 13.7 -0.1 46.5 46.7 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 7.6 8.2 9.9 2.0 85.4 80.8 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 12.8 12.8 14.7 1.2 69.4 67.9 11.0 12.1 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.7 12.9 -0.8 38.1 36.8 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 12.6 12.5 13.9 0.2 49.0 50.8 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 12.3 12.7 12.9 1.0 61.3 63.1 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 12.6 13.2 14.3 1.2 64.8 65.4 11.6 12.3 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 11.9 12.4 12.0 2.3 93.0 87.3 9.8 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.3 14.5 1.0 61.6 62.2 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.9 12.5 13.9 1.8 81.2 77.8 10.2 10.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 10.3 10.7 10.6 1.6 79.1 74.9 7.8 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 12.9 12.7 14.1 0.1 49.5 49.8 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------