***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 81.4 85.3 79.5 125.9 73.1 63.6 54.1 70.5 81.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 76.3 73.7 65.2 110.3 60.7 55.6 57.4 68.9 77.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 93.4 108.7 74.6 115.5 61.8 58.2 65.4 84.9 111.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 94.5 93.7 72.6 108.7 61.8 55.2 69.9 88.6 97.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 71.2 69.0 73.0 110.1 61.8 55.6 53.5 66.5 69.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 61.2 70.2 76.2 93.3 47.5 45.9 61.0 74.0 83.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 62.9 71.5 67.4 116.8 65.1 58.7 43.4 57.9 71.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 87.6 102.5 73.2 91.2 46.9 44.3 81.8 106.6 112.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 54.3 69.7 74.3 105.3 57.3 52.2 57.1 67.3 76.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 63.6 80.7 79.2 96.3 50.5 46.6 65.7 80.7 90.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 66.3 64.7 67.8 100.1 54.5 50.0 52.6 62.0 70.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 63.6 59.0 65.9 94.2 50.0 47.0 42.4 58.9 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 66.2 62.6 76.6 101.4 55.5 51.1 50.1 58.2 80.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 78.9 96.1 86.7 101.6 56.6 51.9 83.1 93.1 106.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 40.8 66.5 60.9 104.4 59.9 52.3 47.6 58.3 70.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 59.2 54.3 70.1 101.4 55.9 51.2 36.8 52.0 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 45.1 73.4 60.0 105.4 57.2 52.6 47.0 63.9 80.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 64.9 80.6 86.2 96.4 50.6 47.2 69.4 79.8 89.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 78.2 79.6 66.1 106.5 59.6 53.9 64.9 72.8 82.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 57.0 68.6 76.4 86.3 43.4 40.7 58.1 77.6 89.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 71.1 72.4 74.4 112.7 61.3 56.7 52.0 67.9 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 76.1 72.4 61.9 100.5 55.8 51.3 59.4 70.9 78.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 65.0 61.2 67.4 101.2 56.2 52.0 52.6 57.4 69.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 70.2 88.4 80.5 101.2 53.5 50.7 73.9 82.8 107.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 73.3 77.4 84.6 118.1 67.8 61.2 52.5 68.3 75.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 68.8 58.4 58.4 86.3 41.1 43.4 45.2 65.6 73.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 71.5 88.9 85.4 124.3 72.1 63.7 60.5 66.3 82.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 68.2 70.0 66.7 103.7 58.2 52.0 44.1 64.6 74.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 81.1 102.0 84.3 93.6 48.3 45.4 85.5 103.4 112.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 77.3 81.8 70.1 117.0 64.1 58.8 58.8 72.7 82.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------