***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 22.9 17.1 154.8 78.7 56.3 4.3 8.0 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.5 34.0 14.7 129.5 74.6 55.5 5.7 11.6 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.4 50.9 17.0 149.3 76.5 55.3 7.3 14.5 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.6 46.0 13.7 147.3 74.6 54.7 9.0 14.7 36.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.5 27.4 14.1 142.6 74.0 52.9 4.1 13.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.7 19.5 13.0 97.4 64.1 44.7 4.8 11.6 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.6 21.9 15.4 140.2 74.6 56.9 4.2 9.3 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.2 20.8 14.1 104.4 62.9 46.5 10.8 16.5 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.7 28.2 15.3 128.3 75.4 51.9 9.1 14.0 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.8 37.3 16.8 118.0 69.5 49.1 9.6 21.3 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.4 22.3 11.9 122.4 68.4 49.3 7.8 14.3 22.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 18.0 11.4 100.0 63.0 45.5 3.0 5.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.8 20.1 13.0 102.1 63.7 45.8 5.5 11.1 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.1 32.2 19.1 117.7 69.5 53.4 12.1 19.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.0 32.1 11.1 161.3 80.7 54.4 2.5 7.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.1 15.8 12.1 114.7 67.5 47.5 2.7 8.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.2 13.2 113.2 69.2 53.5 3.6 7.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 31.2 20.3 118.1 68.9 48.5 7.7 19.6 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.8 34.8 15.1 129.8 75.4 55.0 6.9 11.5 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.4 19.4 17.1 106.8 61.2 44.9 9.6 13.4 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.7 29.7 15.1 136.3 73.8 53.3 4.8 9.1 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 17.3 12.9 99.6 67.1 51.5 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 30.1 16.0 132.4 76.6 53.8 4.8 10.4 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 31.7 49.6 18.5 126.5 71.8 51.8 13.9 24.3 38.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.0 34.4 16.6 143.8 73.3 56.7 6.0 10.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.3 20.4 9.6 94.9 64.6 43.1 4.7 8.6 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.1 29.6 18.0 150.6 75.6 57.7 8.1 12.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.6 32.1 12.2 141.2 76.3 53.0 3.3 18.1 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.6 39.5 19.5 112.7 66.6 46.8 10.8 29.3 37.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.4 36.6 16.1 148.6 78.5 56.5 4.0 16.5 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------