***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 20.4 34.6 20.3 117.2 67.1 56.2 4.6 15.9 34.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.3 28.2 18.0 111.6 68.3 56.2 8.9 19.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.6 32.5 20.9 122.7 70.6 58.4 5.9 15.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 27.8 28.0 22.4 131.3 75.1 61.3 6.9 18.9 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.2 30.1 21.3 130.5 73.2 61.0 8.3 13.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.4 31.7 23.7 116.7 69.9 58.7 12.8 21.4 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.6 21.1 17.8 116.7 68.2 55.9 10.8 12.5 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 22.3 38.2 21.4 123.2 70.8 59.2 10.6 16.8 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 21.1 21.9 21.9 125.4 70.6 60.5 10.0 18.0 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.0 32.2 23.3 121.1 70.1 59.2 4.5 16.6 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.0 25.7 18.6 126.6 73.6 58.9 7.1 13.2 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.6 22.9 19.7 127.4 72.0 60.3 4.1 13.1 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.4 30.4 21.2 122.6 71.1 60.1 5.5 17.5 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.7 26.8 27.2 119.1 66.2 58.8 11.1 13.6 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.9 27.9 19.7 128.3 75.3 60.5 2.5 10.6 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 22.9 24.3 20.3 126.5 72.3 61.1 2.6 8.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.2 21.9 16.7 108.0 66.3 54.7 4.7 13.8 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 23.9 26.8 123.8 69.8 60.5 8.9 15.3 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 20.3 27.6 18.8 109.3 68.2 56.8 6.7 17.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.1 26.7 23.0 117.8 68.0 58.8 6.4 17.4 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.9 26.7 21.7 126.4 70.1 59.9 8.6 13.8 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.5 20.8 17.9 103.5 65.9 54.6 8.8 14.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.2 23.0 20.0 109.8 70.7 57.4 6.2 16.0 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.5 23.4 25.3 124.7 68.1 60.7 10.7 19.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 23.0 25.3 22.5 113.5 68.8 56.9 4.4 8.9 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.9 26.8 18.2 127.5 73.9 58.0 0.9 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.5 29.1 22.0 116.0 68.1 57.5 3.0 16.0 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 16.7 20.4 21.3 130.5 75.6 60.6 3.6 10.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 21.3 26.6 26.7 128.5 71.9 61.9 8.6 18.4 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.3 25.0 18.7 116.1 70.4 56.7 12.1 19.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------