***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 8.7 15.2 18.0 95.0 55.8 48.1 8.1 14.0 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.7 16.1 95.7 58.6 47.1 7.7 11.8 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 24.4 21.6 19.0 96.8 59.0 48.9 9.3 17.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 8.5 17.1 17.4 81.0 55.7 45.1 11.5 13.8 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.5 12.0 16.1 75.0 48.7 41.2 8.4 12.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.3 12.3 17.2 71.9 43.7 40.0 10.5 13.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.8 13.4 17.2 101.5 61.4 48.1 5.3 8.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.5 23.4 17.2 76.5 48.6 42.9 16.5 23.7 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 10.1 19.9 17.4 77.0 52.7 42.9 10.9 17.3 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.7 14.4 17.8 75.8 49.5 43.1 9.0 14.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.9 15.3 17.8 79.6 52.1 43.9 9.1 14.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.8 16.6 76.8 50.8 43.2 6.8 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.1 9.1 15.4 71.2 48.8 41.5 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.3 23.2 21.5 89.2 53.9 45.5 14.9 21.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.3 10.6 15.5 78.2 55.1 44.0 5.4 9.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 10.5 16.7 76.1 49.2 43.7 7.8 10.6 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.3 18.5 15.2 98.8 61.4 48.2 5.0 14.4 20.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 13.7 21.0 19.8 79.5 51.2 44.5 12.5 21.0 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.3 22.9 16.8 93.7 58.8 46.9 5.9 19.6 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.2 11.4 16.6 72.0 46.0 39.4 8.8 12.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 8.6 16.2 17.5 82.9 55.4 44.7 9.5 15.0 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.3 21.7 16.8 99.3 65.6 48.4 5.6 13.2 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 9.9 22.6 18.1 90.9 58.6 47.6 9.2 18.7 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 11.8 23.4 20.0 84.6 53.1 45.8 10.0 23.1 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.0 20.4 18.6 84.2 54.7 45.0 10.6 18.0 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.8 5.8 13.1 59.8 43.1 35.0 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.4 18.9 20.1 97.4 58.9 48.8 7.2 14.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.1 11.9 15.5 75.0 51.4 42.8 7.8 11.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.6 19.4 19.7 78.2 48.0 43.2 13.5 21.2 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.3 18.6 18.0 102.6 61.1 48.7 7.4 11.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------