***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 12.3 14.7 24.1 152.3 79.4 68.4 3.9 8.6 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 15.1 16.4 110.9 64.8 57.5 3.1 7.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.4 11.7 17.7 107.8 65.1 58.1 2.9 5.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.2 18.0 19.0 101.0 59.2 54.0 3.8 11.1 24.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 14.3 21.5 115.6 66.0 58.2 6.0 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.8 22.3 91.7 53.5 46.2 6.8 12.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.7 17.0 117.1 66.0 58.6 2.8 7.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 29.0 20.8 20.5 75.4 42.2 40.1 15.9 25.1 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.3 13.2 19.6 106.0 59.8 54.8 3.5 10.8 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 10.8 21.3 84.6 48.3 45.1 7.6 11.0 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.6 9.8 19.5 93.5 53.1 49.4 6.9 9.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.1 13.5 18.3 84.6 49.4 45.9 7.4 13.5 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.0 19.3 27.0 113.4 66.6 55.8 5.1 9.2 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.3 12.1 18.9 85.5 51.1 47.4 8.4 11.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.1 14.6 89.9 59.5 52.4 3.9 6.1 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.9 21.0 101.7 59.1 52.1 5.6 11.4 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.8 14.8 103.9 63.2 55.9 2.8 5.7 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 9.6 19.3 74.7 41.9 40.1 8.3 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.7 15.3 100.8 62.0 54.7 3.1 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.7 9.1 19.6 64.9 35.0 35.6 8.5 12.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.6 12.6 20.1 121.2 68.5 60.4 4.0 6.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.0 14.3 99.3 62.6 56.1 5.8 7.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.6 13.3 81.3 55.4 49.0 2.6 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.9 11.7 16.7 80.4 49.6 45.4 8.7 12.0 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.0 16.4 27.0 148.0 78.1 68.7 2.6 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.4 13.2 17.6 82.1 49.9 46.4 8.4 13.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.7 17.4 25.2 148.4 77.7 67.9 3.0 7.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.6 16.5 17.7 94.2 57.3 50.9 4.6 11.8 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.7 16.1 18.4 68.4 41.0 38.0 12.9 19.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.6 17.3 112.3 66.0 58.7 4.8 5.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------